# Forecasts and volatility

> How to read a sentiment, buzz or volatility forecast — the median, the 50 % and 90 % intervals, the model — and what your plan changes.

Forecasts and volatility are statistical estimates, not investment advice. FinSentS forecasts news sentiment, news buzz and the size of price moves; it publishes no price or return forecast, target price or rating.

## Sentiment and buzz forecasts

**News sentiment — N-day forecast** shows, day by day:

- **Median** — the middle of the forecast: as likely to end above as below;
- **50 % interval** — the range the value should fall in one time in two;
- **90 % interval** — the range it should fall in nine times in ten.

The fan chart draws the same. **Model** names the model that made the forecast and the day of the data it used. **Show news buzz** switches to the buzz forecast.

Several models compete for each series; one is served only when it beats a simple baseline on a backtest. The rules: the [methodology](https://www.finsents.com/methodology).

## Volatility

**Volatility — next N trading days** forecasts how large price moves should be — not their direction — as **Daily volatility**, **Annualized**, and the cumulative ± range. **What if the next trading day moves** recomputes it for a move of −5 % to +5 %. Weekends are skipped; exchange holidays are not.

## What your plan changes

Everyone sees the same forecast. A plan only sets **how many days ahead** you see: the panel says *N of the M days on your plan* when it is cut. See [Plans and billing](https://www.finsents.com/help/finsents-start/plans-and-billing).

## Act on a forecast

- **Alert me** creates an [alert](https://www.finsents.com/help/finsents-follow/alerts#start-from-a-forecast) on the forecast, with thresholds suggested from its interval.
- **Why this forecast?** (Premium) explains it in words.
- **Download CSV** gives the forecast and its track record.

How past forecasts fared: [Track record and methodology](https://www.finsents.com/help/finsents-read/track-record-and-methodology).