# Nowcasts

> Estimates of macro figures — growth, inflation, jobs — for the period not yet published, their history, what-if scenarios, upcoming releases and surprises.

A nowcast estimates a macro figure for a period that is over, or under way, but not yet published, from the monthly indicators already out. **Nowcasts** is open to everyone; add `?lang=fr` to read its macro brief in French.

## The nowcasts page

- **Macro surprises** — per country, how far recent releases landed from their nowcasts, with **Alert me**.
- **Macro brief** — a short note written by AI from the figures. To receive it by e-mail, see [Display and e-mails](https://www.finsents.com/help/finsents-start/display-and-emails#e-mails).
- One card per nowcast — *Series — Country, period* — with its **Median**, **50 % interval** and **90 % interval**, and the indicators it is built from (**Indicator**, **Estimate**, **Slope**, **Months published**). Some note that InfoTrie news sentiment is included: it is kept only where it improved the backtest.

Each card links to **History of this nowcast** and **Alert me when it crosses a level**.

## A nowcast's history

The history page shows:

- **What moved the nowcast** — which indicators changed it, and by how much;
- **What if** — change an indicator's **Value** and choose **Recompute** to see the nowcast it would give;
- **Latest releases against the nowcast**, with **Alert me when a release surprises**;
- the nowcast as it stood on each day, against the figure first published (**Period**, **Nowcast (as of)**, **First release**, **Error**);
- CSV downloads of the nightly history and of releases against the nowcast.

## Upcoming releases

**Upcoming releases** lists the next publications: when, which figure and period, the nowcast with its 90 % interval, and the consensus where there is one. **Add to my calendar** downloads them as an `.ics` file for the next 60 days.

## Alerts on macro figures

Three alert measures work on nowcasts: the nowcast itself, a release's surprise against it, and a country's surprise index. See [Alerts](https://www.finsents.com/help/finsents-follow/alerts#measures).