Forecasts and volatility
How to read a sentiment, buzz or volatility forecast — the median, the 50 % and 90 % intervals, the model — and what your plan changes.
Forecasts and volatility are statistical estimates, not investment advice. FinSentS forecasts news sentiment, news buzz and the size of price moves; it publishes no price or return forecast, target price or rating.
Sentiment and buzz forecasts
News sentiment — N-day forecast shows, day by day:
- Median — the middle of the forecast: as likely to end above as below;
- 50 % interval — the range the value should fall in one time in two;
- 90 % interval — the range it should fall in nine times in ten.
The fan chart draws the same. Model names the model that made the forecast and the day of the data it used. Show news buzz switches to the buzz forecast.
Several models compete for each series; one is served only when it beats a simple baseline on a backtest. The rules: the methodology.
Volatility
Volatility — next N trading days forecasts how large price moves should be — not their direction — as Daily volatility, Annualized, and the cumulative ± range. What if the next trading day moves recomputes it for a move of −5 % to +5 %. Weekends are skipped; exchange holidays are not.
What your plan changes
Everyone sees the same forecast. A plan only sets how many days ahead you see: the panel says N of the M days on your plan when it is cut. See Plans and billing.
Act on a forecast
- Alert me creates an alert on the forecast, with thresholds suggested from its interval.
- Why this forecast? (Premium) explains it in words.
- Download CSV gives the forecast and its track record.
How past forecasts fared: Track record and methodology.