Nowcasts
Estimates of macro figures — growth, inflation, jobs — for the period not yet published, their history, what-if scenarios, upcoming releases and surprises.
A nowcast estimates a macro figure for a period that is over, or under way, but not yet published, from the monthly indicators already out. Nowcasts is open to everyone; add ?lang=fr to read its macro brief in French.
The nowcasts page
- Macro surprises — per country, how far recent releases landed from their nowcasts, with Alert me.
- Macro brief — a short note written by AI from the figures. To receive it by e-mail, see Display and e-mails.
- One card per nowcast — Series — Country, period — with its Median, 50 % interval and 90 % interval, and the indicators it is built from (Indicator, Estimate, Slope, Months published). Some note that InfoTrie news sentiment is included: it is kept only where it improved the backtest.
Each card links to History of this nowcast and Alert me when it crosses a level.
A nowcast's history
The history page shows:
- What moved the nowcast — which indicators changed it, and by how much;
- What if — change an indicator's Value and choose Recompute to see the nowcast it would give;
- Latest releases against the nowcast, with Alert me when a release surprises;
- the nowcast as it stood on each day, against the figure first published (Period, Nowcast (as of), First release, Error);
- CSV downloads of the nightly history and of releases against the nowcast.
Upcoming releases
Upcoming releases lists the next publications: when, which figure and period, the nowcast with its 90 % interval, and the consensus where there is one. Add to my calendar downloads them as an .ics file for the next 60 days.
Alerts on macro figures
Three alert measures work on nowcasts: the nowcast itself, a release's surprise against it, and a country's surprise index. See Alerts.