Track record and methodology
How FinSentS checks its forecasts against what happened, and where to read how they are made.
Track record
Track record scores every forecast family against what actually happened. Each family has a row:
| Column | What it says |
|---|---|
| Forecasts, Series, Outcomes | How many forecasts were scored, on how many series, against how many observed outcomes |
| Median error | The typical distance between the forecast's median and the outcome |
| Skill | 1 − error / error of the last known value: above 0, the forecast beats simply repeating the last value |
| CRPS | A score of the whole forecast, not just its median; compare it only between series of the same scale |
| Brier (up) | How good the forecast's probability of ending above the last known value was; lower is better |
| 90 % interval held | How often the outcome fell inside the 90 % interval — near 90 % is right |
| PIT | Where outcomes fell among the forecast's quantiles |
Reading the PIT: tall outer bars mean the intervals were too narrow, tall middle ones too wide, a tilt a biased median.
The served forecasts are stored every night and never rewritten, then scored when the outcome is known. Only the current engine's forecasts are scored.
Methodology
Methodology is the reference for how the figures are made and what they cannot do: the data, the sentiment, buzz and volatility forecasts, the nowcasts, the calibrated intervals, the AI briefs and the limits. Read it there: Methodology. This help explains how to use the screens; the methodology explains the numbers.